Chapter 354: Chapter 41: The Increasingly Distant Truth
 

On the morning of October 25, 1864, Franz, who had just awakened from his sleep, was stunned by the news that the Prussian Government had declared war on the Kingdom of Denmark.

To be precise, the two countries had already declared war yesterday afternoon. The news reached Vienna late at night, and the astute staff waited to report it until Franz was up.

There had been no recruitment efforts whatsoever in advance, and the two nations suddenly went to war. As for the Prussian pretext for “liberating German brethren,” Franz outright ignored it.

An excuse for war is good enough. In history, the Prussians have carried the banner of defending the sovereignty of the Germany Region, but under the butterfly effect of Franz, the Berlin Government no longer dared to flaunt this banner.

With the revival of Austria, slogans and mottos related to “German unification” gradually disappeared from the official documents of the Prussian Government.

Especially after the Paris Conference, both the Kingdom of Prussia and the newly established German Federation Empire tacitly suppressed the idea of greater unification.

Everyone was not a fool; if the propaganda continued, it would be making a wedding dress for Austria.

Once the idea of unification took root in people’s hearts, they would become the ones to be unified. For the populace, unification might be a good thing, but for the rulers, it was a completely different matter.

Don’t think that the governments of the various Sub-States in the New Holy Roman Empire had much power. Compared to being completely in charge, the rulers’ powers were significantly diminished.

Under the influence of interests, the international agreement to split the Germany Region at the Paris Conference became the legal basis for Prussia’s withdrawal from the Germany Region.

Legally speaking, the Kingdom of Prussia was an independent nation, just like Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland.

If they continued to wave the banner of defending the sovereignty of the Germany Region, wouldn’t that be telling the world that the Kingdom of Prussia was still part of Germany and providing a legal basis for Austria to annex them?

The Berlin Government was not going to commit such foolish acts. Although the reason for liberating German brethren was somewhat strained, it was better than planting a political bomb.

This Prussia-Denmark war involved the Schleswig-Holstein Duchies, and the Vienna Government definitely needed to take a stand.

After a simple breakfast, Franz convened a Cabinet meeting in the Palace.

Foreign Minister Weisenberg analyzed, “Your Majesty, based on the intelligence we have collected, we can preliminarily determine that the Prussians had premeditated this war. This includes the Polish independence movement that happened not long ago, which is also related to them.

The Berlin Government dared to declare war on the Kingdom of Denmark, and in this, England and France likely had a hand. They aim to use this opportunity to strike Russia.

The Tsarist Government is in a dire situation right now, with domestic reforms still underway, the Central Asian wars having commenced, and the Polish independence movement having erupted.

With so many issues happening at once, it would be difficult for the Tsarist Government’s finances to support another major war.

If they interfere in the Prussia-Denmark war, England and France will support Prussia in fighting a proxy war against them, further draining their resources and disrupting the Tsarist Government’s reforms.

If the Tsarist Government chooses to make concessions, then their international reputation will also plummet. If Russia can’t protect its small ally Denmark, how can they claim to be the hegemon of Europe?

Whichever choice the Tsarist Government makes, it will come at a huge cost.

Perhaps the British prefer a proxy war to weaken the strength of the Russians; the French, on the other hand, are more inclined to use this as an opportunity to pull the Russians from their dominant position.”

Analyzing it plainly, if the Prussian Government suddenly declared war on the Kingdom of Denmark, it meant England, France, and Prussia must have colluded. Otherwise, where would the Prussian Government get the courage to challenge the Russians?

Matters unilaterally decided by the Junker aristocracy would only be known to a few, and these people would not disclose it.

Including many in the Prussian Military, they believe that the war was a joint operation planned by the King, the Cabinet, and the military sector. No one considered that it might have been a decision made solely by the upper echelons of the military.

Of course, only if the top brass orchestrated this operation could the most basic loopholes be covered. If it had been planned by the lower ranks of the army, they probably would have naively shouted slogans like “For the unification of the German People,” and launched an assault.

This is also why Franz hadn’t noticed the Prussian moves in advance. Otherwise, he would have utilized his covert channels to attack the Danish people under the banner of unifying Germany.

Those who are not politically astute could hardly foresee the political impacts brought about by this slogan. As long as it was spirited enough to inspire people, that was all that mattered!

Political slogans cannot be shouted recklessly; once a slogan is out there, it cannot be taken back.

Prime Minister Felix wondered with confusion, “But why would the Prussian Government want to snatch chestnuts from the fire for England and France?

Merely for the sake of the Schleswig-Holstein Duchies, they made an enemy of Russia and, even though the Tsarist Government may not deal with them now, they will surely retaliate in the future.

Even if those in power in the Prussian Government are anti-Russian, they cannot ignore the disparity in strength between the two countries. They can’t possibly make an enemy of Russia blindly, can they?”

The current situation is different from history. In the historical Crimean War, Russia had already lost its dominance in Europe. The importance of the Kingdom of Denmark to the Tsarist Government had decreased; it was merely a matter of face.

But at this moment, for the Russians, the Kingdom of Denmark was not just a matter of face, but also a matter of their status as the hegemon of Europe.

To be a hegemon, you don’t just need strength, but also the recognition of others.

If a small Kingdom of Prussia could challenge their authority, and if Russia couldn’t suppress it, by what right could the Russian Empire claim to be the hegemon of Europe?

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Even if Alexander II tolerates it now for domestic reforms, in the future, if Russians wish to contend for the hegemony of Europe, they must inevitably sacrifice the Kingdom of Prussia.

In this respect, the actions of the Prussian Government are very unwise. Even if they gain short-term benefits, it will be an endless disaster in the future.

If luck is not on their side, the Tsarist Government, regardless of consequences, will come knocking on their door. Even with support from England and France, should they win the war, they would still be greatly weakened.

After pondering for a moment, Franz replied, “It’s quite likely that, from the beginning, the Prussian Government has regarded the Russians as mortal enemies, not caring at all about offending them.

I remember that in the Russian European expansion strategy, the first target is Prussian Poland.

Prussian Poland occupies 46.3% of the territory of the Kingdom of Prussia. From the Prussians’ standpoint, there is absolutely no possibility of compromise.

(Note: After the anti-French wars, the Warsaw region of Austro-Poland fell into Russian hands, but parts of East Prussia and West Prussia were also implicitly considered Prussian Poland, a territory not acquired from the three partitions, hence offsetting each other)

Faced with a powerful Russian Empire that could strike at any moment, they can only align themselves with England and France.

Now, the two major powers want them to make trouble for Russia, and the reward is the Schleswig-Holstein Duchies.

The Berlin Government also doesn’t want to see the Russians succeed in their reforms. With support from others, it is better to strike first and catch the Russians off guard.

They are not without chances of winning; if they take the risk and defeat the Russians once, not only could they annex the two duchies, but they could also have Russia Poland achieve independence, becoming a buffer between the two nations, and thereby fundamentally changing their strategic passivity.”

Franz’s speculations were quite astute, and many in the Prussian Government shared the same thoughts; they just strayed further and further from the truth.

The Junker nobles who orchestrated this campaign could guarantee with their family honor that they hadn’t thought that far ahead, and they were just fighting for their own interests.

Defeating the Russians wasn’t even within their planned scope.

Maoqi’s strategic plan was merely to defeat the Danish people swiftly and then be able to hold the border fortresses against the Russian advance.

After all, the Tsarist Government is now impoverished, facing domestic conservatives who oppose reform, and if the conflict drags on for a few months, the Russian Army will collapse without fighting.

Moreover, they have to contend with the Polish Independence Organization. Before suppressing the Polish rebellion, the Russian Army risks having their supply lines cut off by the rebel army if they advance against the Kingdom of Prussia.

In many people’s eyes, by the time the Tsarist Government suppresses the Polish uprising, their coffers will have been drained, leaving no funds to continue the war?

The truth of the matter and the decisions of the Vienna Government do not have a direct causal relationship. Even if the Prussians suddenly lost their minds, that would not influence Austria’s decisions.

After forcing himself to adopt the Prussian point of view, Prime Minister Felix said, “Your Majesty, since Prussia and Russia are going to clash, we must also make a choice.

As the Schleswig-Holstein Duchies are involved, we must support the Prussians in the Prussia-Denmark war due to our obligations.

But because of our alliance with Russia, we must support the Russians in the upcoming conflict that might erupt.

We are now at a crossroads, and this choice is a hard one to make.

I suggest we pass the buck to the Russians. If they want Austria’s help, then Russia and Austria should divide Prussia between them.

Russia could take Prussian Poland, and we could take the German regions of Prussia. We could compensate the difference in benefits with cash.

If the Russians disagree with the partition, then we declare neutrality and do not get involved in this Prusso-Russian dispute.”

Franz rolled his eyes; this was not a partition of Prussia between two nations but rather a demand for the Russians to declare support for Austrian unification of Germany.

A glance at the map would show that if Austria occupied the German territories belonging to Prussia, the German Federation Empire would be surrounded by the Shinra Empire.

If under these circumstances, Franz could not use political means to divide and gradually annex the German Federation, he would be embarrassed to consider himself a master of the Habsburg dynasty.

Although the remaining territories in Germany are not extensive, these lands are rich in resources and have advanced industrial and commercial development, with economic levels among the top in Europe.

On top of the economy, these regions have substantial populations. Without Prussian Poland, the remaining half of the Kingdom of Prussia, combined with the German Federation Empire, would have a population of seventeen to eighteen million.

Adding the current sixty million from the New Holy Roman Empire, joining them would place the Shinra Empire’s population higher than the combined populations of England and France. Counting only the homeland, it would also surpass John Bull’s economic volume.

Unless the Tsarist Government collectively lost their minds, such terms would never be negotiable. Releasing a Central European juggernaut, isn’t that asking for trouble?

Prime Minister Felix’s real purpose was to keep the Russians silent, preventing them from asking Austria for help.

Otherwise, armed with the Russian-Austrian alliance treaty, the Tsarist Government would continually ask Austria for loans and support. Should the Vienna Government give or not give?

If they give, it could easily provoke the ire of German nationalists; if they don’t, they violate the alliance treaty and can’t rightly defend their actions.

By raising this issue now, as long as the Russians refuted support for Austrian unification of Germany, the Tsarist Government could no longer ask for assistance with righteous indignation.

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